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South-west monsoon to bring normal rains | Published: 26th February 2019 | Posted Date: Tuesday 26th February 2019 04:05 AM

The second-most likely outcome is of below-normal monsoon. There’s only a very small chance of a drought or excess monsoon, says Skymet.

Hyderabad: The monsoon this year will be normal, that is, between 96 and 104 (plus or minus) per cent of Long Period Average (LPA, the average rainfall received by the country as a whole during the south-west monsoon, for a 50-year period), according to a preliminary monsoon report from Skymet, an independent weather forecasting agency.

Though heavy rainfall is unlikely across the country, drought-like conditions are also unlikely, the report said.

Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of the Climatology department of Skymet, told Deccan Chronicle: “The El Niño conditions were on the rise in the Pacific Ocean till December last, thus temperatures were on the rise. However, the trend is declining, and the probability of El Niño is also falling. This will reduce to about 50 per cent by the time the monsoon arrives, with a gradual decline thereafter. India will receive a normal monsoon. This means it is going to be devolving El Niño year.”

This is just a preliminary forecast and a detailed report will be issued in mid-April which will include the region-wise monsoon prediction.

“We expect no heavy rainfall. The monsoon will be on the lower side of the long period average, it may vary below 96 LPA. At the same time, climatic conditions indicate no drought-like situation in 2019,” the weatherman added.




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